EGYPT: Embattled Tourism Industry, Terribly Affected Recovery Will Take Time

It has been four years since the revolution that toppled then president Hosni Mubarak, and Egypt was gearing itself up to lure the foreign tourists back.

Just this month, authorities were set to launch a worldwide advertising campaign to show tourists the country was safe to return to.

Incidentally, parliamentary elections are also taking place this month, which marks a step along the road map Egypt hoped would bring peace and normality to its politics again.

Tourist numbers showed a slight increase this year after dipping from 14.7 million in 2010, when tourism accounted for 11% of Egypt’s gross domestic product – and was down to 9.9 million last year.

The news of the crash of a Russian plane that took off from the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh to St Petersburg last Saturday, which killed all 217 passengers and seven crew members, was bad enough for the embattled tourism industry, but it was made worse due to the increasing belief by foreign leaders that the plane was brought down by a terrorist bomb.

British Prime Minister David Cameron was the first to publicly state this as Britain cancelled flights to Egyptian resorts and helped tourists return home.

Even Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, who had stood by Egypt’s explanation for six days that the crash was caused by a defect, on Friday suspended Russian flights to Egypt for fear of another attack.

Egypt, however, is sticking to its story, dismissing suggestions that there was a bomb as “premature”, “surprising” and “unwarranted”.

Tour guide Mahmood Hussein, who depends on a strong tourism industry to make a living, has dismissed the possibility that it could have been a bomb.

“It was something wrong with the plane itself; this is what I know,” he said on Friday.

He said things had been increasingly difficult for him since the 2011 revolution and the 2013 toppling of Mubarak’s successor, Mohamed Morsi, and things had only recently started looking better.

He had also been posting pictures on social media of Egypt’s ancient and natural beauty with the hashtag #this_is_egypt in an attempt to get foreign tourists to return for visits to the pyramids, the mosques and the beach resorts in the country.

Now it seems Egypt’s tourism revolution might have to be deferred, at best.

There was confusion and even panic at resorts in Sharm el-Sheikh following the suspension of flights.

Abdel Bari Atwan, who has written a book about the fundamentalist group the Islamic State, said a terrorist attack would be damaging to Egypt “because this would be the biggest blow to the jewel of the crown of the tourism industry in Egypt”.

The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the plane crash, and Atwan said he believed the group.

“There is no information on how they did it. I know personally those people usually tell the truth; it is very rare for them to tell lies. That’s why many people looking at the theatre of disaster feel there is something wrong,” he said.

The crash could, however, strengthen Russia’s resolve in Syria, where it has been assisting the regime of Bashar al-Assad to fight terrorism.

The attack comes as many Egyptians believe the heavy-handed approach to radicals of Egypt’s incumbent president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, is paying off and deterring terrorists. He has banned the Muslim Brotherhood and imprisoned thousands of dissenters.

The first phase of the country’s parliamentary elections last month went off without a hitch, even though the parties and candidates who stood were mostly el-Sisi supporters or sympathisers.

But in its preliminary findings of its observation mission, the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa said the elections took place “within the context of heightened security surveillance due to the increased threat of terrorism within the country”.

There has been speculation that the low turnout could have been due to this, and the lack of what critics say was real electoral competition.

The attack is unlikely to harm el-Sisi’s support as the other half of the country goes to vote in the second phase of the elections later this month, because many citizens approve of his tough stance.

Experts, however, warn that suppression could breed radicalism.

Raeesah Cassim Cachalia from the Institute for Security studies wrote in the think-tank’s publication ISS Today that a study in east Africa found that “state repression has been a leading facilitator of radicalisation”.

El-Sisi’s current strategy might keep the voters happy, but if he wants to keep the country safe and witness the return of the tourists, he might have to consider treating the underlying malaise as well.