GEORGIA: Russia Flight Ban Causes Tourism Losses To Georgia.

Residents of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi working in the hospitality industry are upset by Russia’s decision to bar its airlines from flying to Georgia amid bilateral tensions, as tourism will decrease just as the high season begins.

"It has affected tourist flow. Russian citizens often visit. I cannot give you specific information on the number of Russian nationals who are currently living in our hotel. But there are a lot of them", a representative of one of Tbilisi hotels said.

Owners of restaurants and taxi drivers predicted a decrease in Russian tourism, as well.

"It is, of course, very bad. It is the beginning of the season. Tourism is economy, money and investment", they said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended air traffic starting on 8 July, ordering that all Russian citizens currently in Georgia be returned.

Putin also instructed travel companies to remove package tours to Georgia for the ban period.

The Russian Association of Tour Operators said that there are currently some 5,000-7,000 Russians in Georgia on tours organized by travel companies, while up to three times more Russians are traveling on their own.

Putin’s decree was announced after violent protests erupted on Thursday in Tbilisi over the participation of a Russian delegation in an international parliamentary forum in country's capital.

They subsequently grew into an opposition rally with demonstrators calling on the government to step down.

At least 240 people were reportedly injured in the unrest, while around 300 people were detained.

Moscow has slammed the response of Georgian leadership during the international event and said it was outraged by the actions of the protesters.

The majority of people arriving in Georgia in early 2019 are Russians.

In the first quarter of 2019, 222,700 people arrived in Georgia from Russia, which is 21.4 percent of the total number of tourist arrivals. In comparison with the figure for 2018, this indicator has increased by 24.3 percent.

Such an increase in the number of Russians is taking place while the total number of visitors to the country has hardly grown.

In total, in the first quarter of 2019, Georgia was visited by a million foreign visitors, which is 1.7 percent more than the same period last year.

Of these, there were 900,000 tourists, those who stayed in the country for at least a day, this is just five percent more than last year.

In the first quarter of 2019, guests in the country spend about 1.2 billion lari about $437 million, which is 15.2 percent less than the same indicator for last year.

The average expenditure per visit decreased compared to last year by 16.1 percent and amounted to 889.7 lari about $323.

According to data released by the national statistics service, visitors spend the most money on food and drinks.


Tourism Observer

RUSSIA: Aeroflot Stops Flights To Georgia

Aeroflot completely stopped flights to Georgia starting from July 8 in accordance with President Vladimir Putin's decision to suspend traffic of Russian airlines to the neighbouring country, the airline company said.

"Starting from 8 July, 2019, Aeroflot completely suspends flights to Georgia. This measure has been taken in accordance with the Russian president's decree. From now on, the main efforts of Aeroflot will be aimed at returning Russian citizens from Georgia," the statement said.

According to Aeroflot, those passengers, whose flights are scheduled for 8 July or a later date, can change the departure for an earlier date without any additional payments or penalties, or return the full cost of tickets, thereby terminating the agreement on carriage.

​Ural Airlines has also suspended sales of tickets to Tbilisi starting from 8 July, a spokesperson for the company announced.

On Friday, President Vladimir Putin suspended the air traffic with Georgia, starting on 8 July, and ordered to ensure that all those currently traveling across Georgia be flown back. Moreover, he instructed travel companies not to sell package tours to Georgia for the ban period.

Commenting on the decision, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the measures are forced restrictions imposed by Russia to guarantee safety of Russian nationals in the light of extremist actions that are going on in Georgia.

The Russian Association of Tour Operators said that there are currently around 5,000 - 7,000 Russian tourists traveling to Georgia on tours organised by travel companies, while up to three times more Russians are traveling there on their own.

The decision followed protests in Georgia, which erupted on Thursday over the participation of a Russian delegation in an international parliamentary forum in Tbilisi.

They subsequently grew into an opposition rally with demonstrators calling on the government to step down. At least 240 people have been injured in the unrest, while around 300 people have been detained.

Moscow has slammed the actions of the Georgian leadership during the international event, with Peskov describing the unrest as a "Russophobic provocation."


Tourism Observer

RUSSIA:41 Killed After Aeroflot Aircraft Made A Crash Landing And Caught Fire At Sheremetyevo Airport In Moscow

A Russian-made jet was forced to make an emergency landing at Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport, with images from the scene showing flames and smoke at the end of the aircraft. Dozens of people have died.

Up to 41 people were killed when a passenger airliner made a crash landing and caught fire in Moscow on Sunday.

Russia's Investigative Committee said at least two children were among those who died. The Emergencies Ministry stated that six people had been hospitalized.

The Investigative Committee later said 37 have survived out of the 78 on board.

The Russian-made Sukhoi Superjet belonged to national carrier Aeroflot and was carrying 73 passengers and five crew members.

The passengers were forced to evacuate using emergency slides, with videos showing people staggering away from the burning plane.

The aircraft was set to leave Sheremetyevo for the northern city of Murmansk, which is located inside the Artic Circle and near the border with Finland.

However, an onboard emergency forced the pilots to turn the plane around shortly after taking off.

Shortly after the incident, Aeroflot released a statement saying that the jet was forced to turn back due to technical problems. The airline did not specify exactly what problems the plane was experiencing.

It's not yet clear when the fire broke out on the Aeroflot jet.

The plane reportedly made several attempts to land, with airport officials saying that the plane caught fire when it made a hard emergency landing.

The plane sent out a distress signal after taking off, started emergency landing procedures, failed to land in the first attempt, and in the second it hit landing gear and its nose on the runway and started burning, an unnamed source told Interfax.

Russian media, however, reported that the fire broke out on the plane before it landed. Russian authorities and the airline have yet to comment on the exact reason the jet turned around.

Investigators were at the scene in Sheremetyevo, Russian officials said.

The Sukhoi Superjet 100 made its first commercial flight in 2011. In May 2012, a plane of this type crashed while on a promotional flight in Indonesia with 50 people on board.

The flight recorders from a plane that caught fire during an emergency landing at a Moscow airport have been retrieved. At least 41 people died as a result and it is uncertain if the fire started before or after landing.

Passengers who managed to escape the fireball crash of a Russian Aeroflot passenger plane in which 41 people died have blamed a lightning strike on causing the tragedy.

Survivor Pyotr Egorov said: We took off and then lightning struck the plane.

The plane turned back and there was a hard landing. We were so scared, we almost lost consciousness.

The plane jumped down the landing strip like a grasshopper and then caught fire on the ground.

Passengers were also accused of delaying the evacuation of the burning plane by reaching into the overhead compartments to retrieve their belongings.

The evacuation of the plane had been delayed by some passengers insisting on collecting their hand luggage first.

The plane had only succeeded making an emergency landing on the second attempt and that some of the aircraft's systems had then failed.

Russian officials said today that both flight recorders were recovered from the plane.

Russian Investigative Committee spokeswoman Svetlana Petrenko said investigators are looking into three main possibilities behind the cause of the disaster, insufficient pilot qualifications, equipment failure, and weather.

Video on Russian TV showed the Aeroflot plane's underside bursting into flames and spewing black smoke after making a hard landing at Sheremetyevo Airport on Sunday night.

Those who escaped leapt out of the Sukhoi SSJ100 airliner down inflatable emergency slides and ran across the tarmac.

Storms were passing through the Moscow area when the jet caught fire during the emergency landing, after it turned back for unspecified reasons during an internal flight to Murmansk.

Meanwhile, Russian transport minister Yevgeny Dietrich said 41 bodies have been recovered from the burned wreckage.

He also told reporters in a briefing on Monday that six people who survived the disaster on Sunday night are being treated in hospital.

Shocking footage showed the Sukhoi Superjet 100 crash bouncing along the tarmac at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport before the rear part of the plane suddenly burst into flames.

Russian state TV broadcast mobile phone footage shot by another passenger in which people could be heard screaming.

Passengers on board SU 1492 then escaped via the plane's emergency slides that inflated after the hard landing.

The plane, which had been flying from Moscow to the northern Russian city of Murmansk, had been carrying 73 passengers and five crew members, Russia's aviation watchdog said.

Svetlana Petrenko, a spokeswoman for Russia's Investigative Committee, said in a statement that only 37 out of 78 people on board had survived, meaning 41 people had lost their lives.

No official cause has been given for the disaster.

An investigation has been opened and is looking into whether the pilots had breached air safety rules.

President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev expressed their condolences and ordered investigators to establish what had happened.

Russian news agencies reported that injured passengers were being treated in hospitals.

The plane had circled twice over Moscow before making an emergency landing after just under 30 minutes in the air.

The plane's under carriage gave way on impact and its engines caught fire.

The plane had only succeeded making an emergency landing on the second attempt and that some of the aircraft's systems had then failed.

The emergency landing was so hard that debris had found its way into the engines, sparking a fire that swiftly engulfed the rear of the fuselage, the same source said.

Russian investigators said they were looking into various versions.

The plane had been produced in 2017 and had been serviced as recently as April this year.

Aeroflot has long shaken off its troubled post Soviet safety record and now has one of the world's most modern fleets on international routes where it relies on Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

Russian officials are keen for Aeroflot to buy more Sukhoi Superjets, a regional airliner, for domestic flights to support the country's fledgling civil aircraft industry. The plane is built in Russia's Far East.

A Sukhoi Superjet crashed in Indonesia in 2012, killing all 45 people on board in an accident blamed on human error.

The Superjet entered service in 2011 and was the first new passenger jet developed in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.

It has been hit, however, by sporadic concerns over safety and reliability, including a December 2016 grounding after a defect was discovered in an aircraft's tail section.

Russian officials said on Sunday it was premature to talk of grounding the Sukhoi Superjet for now. The plane is predominantly used by Russian airlines like Aeroflot, but is also used by a few other foreign operators, including a low-cost Mexican airline.

Terrifying new footage has revealed how a stricken Russian plane bounced down the runway at a Moscow airport before catching fire in an air disaster which killed 41 people.

The struggling Superjet plane came in to land at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport yesterday but flicked off the tarmac and remained airborne before collapsing to the ground seconds later.

The new security footage shows a fireball erupting from the fuselage as the damaged plane careers along the runway with a huge cloud of smoke trailing behind it.

It also emerged today that a hero stewardess kicked open an exit door to help passengers escape the inferno on board the plane, which was returning to Moscow to make an emergency landing.

Tatyana Kasatkina, 34, grabbed passengers by their collars and pushed them to safety - as others said they were slowed down by customers trying to retrieve their luggage.

However another flight attendant, Maxim Moissev, died in the flames as he tried desperately to open a door at the rear of the plane.

Russian officials are still probing the cause of the crash, suggesting three theories: insufficient pilot qualifications, equipment failure, and weather. They do not intend to ground the type of aircraft.

Both flight recorders have today been recovered, which will allow investigators to examine what went wrong aboard a plane which pilot Denis Evdokimov said had been hit by lightning.

Dozens of flights at Sheremetyevo were delayed because of the disaster.


Tourism Observer

RUSSIA: Russia To Reinstate Flights To Egypt After 2018 FIFA World Cup

The talks on opening charter flights to Egyptian resort cities will be resumed after the 2018 FIFA World Cup, Russia’s Transport Minister Yevgeny Ditrikh said on Thursday.

All actions related to revision of flights to Egypt will be performed after the end of the FIFA World Cup in Russia, he said when asked a respective question.

According to Ditrikh, representatives of the country’s aviation ministry have visited Russia during the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Egyptian authorities said earlier this year that they expect charter flights between Russian cities and the Red Sea resorts of Sharm el-Sheikh and Hurghada to be resumed in the second half of 2018.

All flights between the two countries were cancelled in November 2015 after the explosion of Russia’s A320 jet over the Sinai Peninsula on October 31, less than half an hour after takeoff from Sharm el-Sheikh international airport.

The terrorist attack claimed the lives of all 217 passengers and seven crew members. Russia demanded a considerable tightening of security measures at Egyptian airports as a precondition for the resumption of flights.

In mid-December 2017, Russia and Egypt signed an agreement on aviation security and a special protocol on restoring air service between the two countries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the decree on resumption of scheduled flights to Cairo on January 4, 2018. Settlement of technical matters, including slots booking and schedule preparation, continued in two subsequent months.


Tourism Observer

RUSSIA: Qatar Airways Buys 25% Stake In Vnukovo International Airport, One Of The Largest And Busiest

Qatar Airways has bought a 25 per cent stake in one of Moscow’s largest airports for an undisclosed sum as the company attempts to overcome the Gulf blockade of the emirate.

Akbar Al Baker, chief executive of Qatar Airways, said on Monday that the airline expected the deal on Vnukovo to be concluded within the next eight weeks.

The airport, Russia’s third-largest, served 18m passengers last year and is used by the government for official travel. Businessman Vitaly Vantsev and partners own a 74.9 per cent stake of Vnukovo.

Mr Al Baker did not say whether he was buying from Mr Vantsev, but Russia’s state property management service said it had no plans to privatise its 25 per cent stake.

Qatar’s emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, visited Moscow on Monday for a bilateral meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin, a vital international partner, as the blockade by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries continues to harm the emirate’s economy.

Until the blockade was imposed in June, Qatar Airways had bucked a downturn in Gulf airlines’ performance, posting net profit growth of 22 per cent to $541m in the 2016 financial year.

But the blockade immediately closed off 18 destinations and while Qatar has refused to quantify the impact, it is likely to be incurring huge costs on rerouting aircraft.

The airline has gone on the offensive, acquiring stakes in Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific and Italy’s Meridiana to boost traffic.

Qatar has invested significantly in Russia in recent years. Qatar Investment Authority, its sovereign wealth fund, bought a 25 per cent stake in St Petersburg’s airport in 2016 for €238m together with the $10bn state-run Russian Direct Investment Fund, which co-invests with foreign investors in Russian companies.

Later that year, the Qatar Investment Authority, headed a consortium with commodities trader Glencore that took a 19.5 per cent stake in Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft for €10.2bn.

The consortium then struck a deal in September to sell 14 per cent of Rosneft to mysterious Chinese commodities house CEFC for $9.1bn, with much of the financing coming from Russian state bank VTB.

However, that deal is under threat after Chinese authorities detained CEFC founder Ye Jiaming last month and Chinese state-owned conglomerate Citic, which is wary over US sanctions against Rosneft and its chief executive Igor Sechin, considered taking a stake in the company.

Glencore has said it still expects the deal to close in the second half of 2018.



Tourism Observer

UKRAINE: Crimea Wants To Export Grain To Saudi Arabia And Operate Charter Flights

Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said on Tuesday that Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud would visit Russia on October 5.

According to the information, the program of the visit includes a meeting with President Vladimir Putin and the signing of a set of agreements.

Oleg Morozov, CEO of the Crimea Development Corporation, said that Saudi Arabia would be likely interested in four of the numerous Crimean development project priority areas.

I would suggest four areas for Saudi investors, primarily the sanatorium and resort sector, which needs to be modernized and which is attractive to many foreign companies,” Morozov said.

According to Morozov, another area that could be interesting for Saudi investors is the Northern Crimea energy and desalination system.

Considering that water supply is pertinent for Saudi Arabia, Saudi experts and their Crimean counterparts could jointly propose and develop innovative solutions.

There is also an attractive project for the building of a yacht marina on the Black Sea coast, and the final area for potential Crimean-Saudi cooperation is the processing of agricultural products, Morozov said.

Crimea would welcome Saudi investments in the development of the agriculture industry, Yaroslav Mikhailov, Crimean Deputy Agriculture Minister, said.

This investment may have a promising future because Crimean agriculture is actively developing and is supported by the government.

We may also cooperate in grain and flour deliveries, Mikhailov said, adding that this year Crimean farmers harvested 1.7 million metric tons of superior-quality grain, which can be used to produce flour of a high quality.

I believe that grain exports could be the most promising part of our cooperation with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the deputy minister said.

Hundreds of Crimean Muslims make a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia every year, but their travel is complicated by the lack of direct flights from Crimea to Saudi Arabia, Zaur Smirnov, head of the Crimean Government’s Committee for Ethnic Relations, said.

Since the number of Crimean pilgrims is growing, it would be reasonable to launch direct charter flights and also open a Saudi Embassy’s visa center in Simferopol, at least for the periods during which groups are formed for pilgrimage, Smirnov said.

Tourists from all over the world come to Crimea, drawn by affordable resorts and medical services, as well as natural attractions, and Saudi Arabia should not be an exception, the Crimean Parliament’s Committee on Health-Resort Complex and Tourism Alexey Chernyak said.

We are ready to welcome groups of tourists from Saudi Arabia, who will be impressed by the diversity of attractions to fit every taste in Crimea.

Our guests will not be bored, Chernyak said.

He added that Saudi business people had considered several investment projects in Crimea before and that the time has come to give these projects a new impetus and to move from intentions to implementation.



Tourism Observer

RUSSIA: Metro Explosion In St Petersburg Kills Ten

10 people were killed Monday in a blast on the metro system of Russia's second city Saint Petersburg.

According to the first preliminary data, around ten people were killed, after the Saint Petersburg metro said that an unidentified object had blown up in a train carriage.

The Tass and Interfax agencies reported the blast hit at the Sennaya Ploshchad metro station, which left a number of victims.

Images posted on social media showed a train carriage with its doors blown out and damage inside.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is in the city, has been informed, Russian media say.

The cause of the explosion is not yet known. Russian news agencies said there may have been two blasts, with a second at the nearby Institute of Technology station.

Meanwhile the explosion hit the metro system of Russia's second city Saint Petersburg on Monday, the firm running it said, after an unidentified object blew up in a train.

"An evacuation from the stations is ongoing, there are people injured," the Saint Petersburg metro said in a statement carried by Russian news agencies. "An unidentified object supposedly blew up in a (train) carriage."

RUSSIA: Russian Military Plane Crashes In Black Sea, 92 Passengers On Board

A Russian military plane with 92 people on board has crashed into the Black Sea on its way to Syria, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, and it was unlikely there would be any survivors.

The crashed Tu-154 plane of Russia’s Defense Ministry carried eight crew members and 84 passengers, the ministry’s official spokesman Igor Konashenkov said.

The plane was carrying Russian servicemen and members of a renowned military choir and dance ensemble, the Alexandrov Ensemble, who were being flown into Russia’s Hmeymim air base in Syria to entertain military personnel in the run-up to the new year, the RIA news agency quoted the Defence Ministry as saying.

Executive Director of the Spravedlivaya Pomoshch (Fair Aid) charity fund Elizaveta Glinka, known as Dr. Liza, was on the list of the passengers, too.

A commission of Russia’s Defense Ministry led by Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Popov has departed to the Black Sea resort of Adler in the wake of the Tu-154 military plane crash, added Konashenkov.

The Tu-154 plane of the Defense Ministry disappeared from radars at 05.40 a.m. Moscow time shortly after taking off from Sochi.

The Defense Ministry said the debris of the Tu-154 plane was found 1.5 km from the coast near Sochi at the depth of 50-70 meters.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was too early to say what had caused the crash. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed of the situation. He receives information from the emergencies services on the search effort. Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu is also in a constant contact with the president.

RUSSIA: Alexei Ulyukayev Detained Over $2 Million Bribe Allegation

Russian authorities have detained Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev on corruption charges linked to a $US5 billion ($6.6 billion) acquisition by state oil giant Rosneft, in a case that could lay bare the fault lines in President Vladimir Putin's inner circle.

Mr Ulyukayev, a 60-year-old technocrat whose ministry has been overseeing a sell-off of state assets, is the highest-ranking Russian official to be arrested while in office since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The Investigative Committee, the state agency that investigates major crimes, said Mr Ulyukayev received a $2.65 million bribe in exchange for signing off on Rosneft's purchase of a stake in mid-sized oil producer Bashneft.

"The minister is detained," the Committee said in a statement.

"In the near future investigators plan to bring charges against Alexei Ulyukayev."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Mr Putin had been informed about the case when the investigation was launched.

"These are serious allegations," Mr Peskov said.

"Only a court can deliver a verdict."

He said he did not know whether the detention meant that Rosneft's purchase of Bashneft could be reviewed.

Rosneft's acquisition of Bashneft was the focus of a major turf war between rival Kremlin camps, sources close to the deal and in the government have said.

The deal was fiercely opposed by economic liberals in the government, some with ties to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who believed Bashneft should go to private investors.

Mr Ulyukayev initially opposed Rosneft buying Bashneft, one of the most lucrative state assets to be privatised in years, but eventually signed off on the deal.

Mr Medvedev and Mr Putin have spoken about the detention, the Prime Minister's office said.

"The Prime Minister believes that the most painstaking investigation of this case is required," his office said in a statement.

TURKEY: Which Way After Failed Coup

Without a strong army, the Turkish republic would not exist. At the end of the First World War, the victorious allies were planning to carve up the territory among themselves, with Russia taking the east and Istanbul, and the French and the Italians taking the south, leaving only a rump Turkish state.

These plans were scotched by an officer named Mustafa Kemal who, in 1919, patched together an army and drove the colonial powers away. He is known to history as Ataturk, the founder of the republic.

The role of the Turkish army is unique in the region, and not just because of the prestige it gained in 1919-22. It has been the backbone of the state, as a unifying force for the various ethnic communities and the protector of Ataturk’s legacy of militant secularism.

Against this backdrop, the purge of the top ranks of the army undertaken by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan after last month’s failed coup is not merely a corrective to root out the conspirators, it threatens one of the pillars of the state.

In a decree on July 27, almost half of the country’s generals and admirals were discharged. Not all of them are accused of being followers of the exiled preacher Fethullah Gulen, whom the government blames for inspiring the mutiny.

Some may be suspected of other forms of disloyalty, or for displaying a lack of zeal in combating the coup plotters. Still, a root and branch reorganisation is under way, including closing the military colleges in which future officers were trained as a caste apart from society.

Not surprisingly, the army is demoralised at a time when it is fighting an insurrection by the militant wing of the Kurdistan Workers Party in southeastern Turkey, a bombing campaign by ISIL and a potentially catastrophic setback for the Turkish-backed rebels in Syria if Aleppo falls to the Russian-backed government forces. All this has caused anxiety to Turkey’s allies in the West, where the Nato alliance has long relied on Turkey’s 500,000-strong armed forces as reserve capacity.

Mr Erdogan’s Islamising policy and his growing suspicion of the United States have cast doubt on Turkey as an ally, but these fissures are almost certain to grow as the army is remade.

The mass dismissal of senior officers has been compared to Stalin’s purge of Soviet armed forces in 1937-38, when 35,000 officers were arrested on trumped-up charges – severely weakening the military before the Nazi invasion in 1941.

To pursue the Soviet analogy, Mr Gulen, the exiled preacher who has lived in rural Pennsylvania since 1999, should be Leon Trotsky, Stalin’s former comrade whom he had assassinated with an ice pick in Mexico. But Mr Gulen is an unlikely Trotsky: he appears to the world as an Islamist thinker who exhorts his followers to devote themselves to education and public service rather than politics, and certainly not armed revolution.

There is one similarity. When Mr Erdogan came to power in 2002, he had few friends in the state bureaucracy, and so relied on the Gulenists to organise mass show trials of army officers to ensure that the military could never force him out of power. The fantastical evidence of military conspiracies at the so-called "Sledgehammer" trials in 2012 has been shown to be fake. But the removal of some of the top brass allowed for some Gulen followers to rise in the ranks.

Inevitably the two arms of the movement fell out, with the Gulenists exposing the corruption and cronyism under Mr Erdogan until he declared his former allies terrorists in May this year.

Evidence released by the authorities from interrogations of some of the accused coup plotters suggests that the Gulenists in the military operated under the deepest cover, not knowing the names of their colleagues. This may explain why the coup failed to mobilise forces with enough speed to neutralise Mr Erdogan.

Or there could be another explanation which is more worrying for Mr Erdogan: powerful currents in the military – such as officers who believed Mr Erdogan’s wilful policy in Syria had opened the way for the Kurds to regroup all along Turkey’s south frontier – were expected to be part of the Gulenist mutiny, but failed to join it.

There are still many unanswered questions. What is clear is that Mr Erdogan intends to place all the security forces firmly under civilian control with responsibility shared between the president, the minister of defence and the minister of interior. This will surely serve to weaken the army’s political role in the state, but may also make it less effective in the security sphere.

These changes are so big that Mr Erdogan has offered an olive branch to the opposition parties – previously under severe pressure – in the hope that he can create a sense of national unity behind the military reforms.

What remains to be seen is how the new military will look. The hunt for the Gulenists will continue. But the real issue is whether the army will become more Islamic, and thus aligned to Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, which would require rooting out the secular tradition inherited from Mustafa Kemal.

At the same time, the geopolitical orientation is likely to change. For decades the army has worked closely with the US military, but Mr Erdogan is openly critical of American policy in Syria. Turkish commentators suggest the army may become less western and more "Eurasian" in its orientation.

Given the failure of US policy in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, maybe this should be no surprise. Mr Erdogan is flying to St Petersburg on Tuesday to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin. This is a chance to open a new era in relations after Turkey shot down a Russian strike aircraft in November last year. The visit may reveal more of Mr Erdogan’s intentions.